They’re not useful for predicting the next parliament - and even very close to elections aren’t particularly good at that either. But can be used to compare periods in a parliamentary term to see how one government is performing compared to others etc.
Eg maybe the better thought from the journos isn’t “labour could form govt” but after 6 months do most governments go up, or down in polling; and what does it say if this poll shows a divergence or continuation of that trend etc.
Labour and National wouldn’t be paying to run them constantly if they were useless. They’re not crystal balling the next election but they have value as a snapshot of public sentiment
Polls this far out are worse than useless.
They’re not useful for predicting the next parliament - and even very close to elections aren’t particularly good at that either. But can be used to compare periods in a parliamentary term to see how one government is performing compared to others etc.
Eg maybe the better thought from the journos isn’t “labour could form govt” but after 6 months do most governments go up, or down in polling; and what does it say if this poll shows a divergence or continuation of that trend etc.
Why? It’s called an opinion poll for a reason. This tells us nothing about the 2026 election, but it’s helpful to get an idea what people think.
Labour and National wouldn’t be paying to run them constantly if they were useless. They’re not crystal balling the next election but they have value as a snapshot of public sentiment