Even so, NATO wouldn’t kerb-stomp Russia.

Completely obliterating its government, industrial capacity, trade, and military would lead to a collapse of that country, fracturing of its territory, and probably heaps more political headaches down the road as the power dynamic is altered.

NATO would aspire to remove Russia from non-Russian territory in most areas, probably including Transnistria but excluding Syria and Africa. They would probably seek regime change, but the old guard of Russian politics would be preserved. They want to return the status-quo ante bellum.

The US and NATO would always seek the Japan option and not the Iraq option. Japan surendered and basically became an autonomous industrial client state of the US for a long time. Iraq dissolved into civil wars and became an unhealing wound that continually sprouted infections like ISIS and became a playground for bad actors like Iran.

Even after the collapse of the soviet union, the US financially propped up some industries in Russia, like their spaceflight industry.

NATO as a credible threat is mostly article 5, Something that is still intact, but under attack. Russia doesn’t want the large European powers or America. They want to control Eastern Europe, the Baltics and the Balkans. Say the political winds change a little, America moves to isolationism. Western Europe decides that it is better to give up on a few smaller states to protect its core countries. Maybe also China decided it is finally time to see if everybody is bluffing over protecting Taiwan. Suddenly NATO seems a lot less dangerous.

Could Russia take on NATO in a one on one conflict, not no not at the moment. Could Russia foment the weakening or break up of NATO and then use that to take on Small Pieces of NATO yeah that has been a plan in the works for a long time now.

Russia doesn’t need Ukraine on its own, they need Ukraine to get access Poland, Romania and Moldova.

They already switched into war time production, and if they manage to get Ukraine they only need a year or two to replenish all military equipment.

People really underestimate Russia and that’s the worst thing you can do to get caught pants down. If Russia senses there’s a chance to succeed they will move on.

Another thing the West seems to be ignoring is that they think the war is just what is happening in Ukraine, when the majority of their operation is disinformation, subversion, and destabilization.

The popularity of far right politicians (who for some reason are friendly toward Kremlin) or BRExit shows how effective it is.

Prolly nukes. At which point who cares any more.

To be fair, the immancy of war with Russia is purely a function of proximity and preparedness.

👆 This account was made a week ago.

Don’t bank on it. It’s a possibility of course, but it’s at least as likely that it doesn’t happen, so you should do reasonable preparations for if the society you’re living in DOESN’T collapse.

People have said that in the 1910s, late 1920s, late 1930s, late 1940s all the way up until the early 1990s, and then we started saying it for other reasons like climate change and AI. It’s always possible, but honestly not likely. The end of globalization will have some severe effects across the world like massive famine in countries that keep reproducing with no food security, but I don’t think we should constantly declare the sky is falling when we’ve proven just how resilient the world is in the wake of an all-out pandemic and supply chain crisis

From the Russian perspective, the world order already collapsed in 1991.

The problem is: for Romania, Poland, Ukraine, and many other countries, that’s when life started to get better. Russia thinks the opposite, they want to return to the time of the Soviet Union.

Nostalgia for the 1980s wouldn’t be a “collapse”. But… it’d be good for Russia, bad for USA and especially bad for Europe. It would be incredibly unpleasant to Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.