I run this analysis in Politics whenever there’s a post about “New national poll says…” but we don’t allow self posts over there so it’s always buried in a comment.
National polls are useless because we don’t have national elections. Red states are gonna red state and blue states are gonna blue state.
So knowing that, here are the current results for states that are in play:
Let’s see the state breakdown now:
Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/
Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/
Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/
Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5
Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
So… changes from last time…
Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.
Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.
Updated for 9/8:
The last time I did this, Arizona flipped to full Trump, Georgia was leaning to Harris, but still a toss up and she was still ahead in Michigan, but losing ground there.
Let’s see what it looks like now:
AZ - WOW(!) 4 most recent polls are ALL ties(!)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/NV - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/NM - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/GA - Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/NC - Trump +1, +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/PA - Trump +1, +2, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/MI - Harris +1, 2 ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/WI - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +2, Tied
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/MN - Harris +5, +7, +11
So, Arizona is out of the Trump column and back to toss up.
GA, NC and PA moving away from Harris.
MI I’m tempted to call a toss up but no recent polling there gives Trump an advantage, so it’s still slimly Harris as is NC and PA Trump.
WI moves from Harris to toss up and it seems likely MI will follow next week.
Plot that on the map and we get:
Trump needs 16. So GA by itself, or any two of WI, AZ, NV.
Harris needs 29. WI, AZ, NV is NOT enough. 27. So if Trump wins Georgia, she’s done.
She needs Georgia + 2 other states to win. Georgia +1 is not enough. The most she could get that way is 27 with AZ.
Updated for 9/4:
As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we’re at…
Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.
Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.
Let’s look at the map:
So, of the “Undecideds”, PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.
PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.
So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.
If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.
Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.
The popular vote isn’t going to be close, Trump hasn’t won a popular vote yet.
The electoral college vote looks like it’s going to be a squeaker.
My #1 prediction is that voting will be down from 2020 because Covid increased voting by mail and we don’t have that this time around. Generally Republicans do better when fewer people vote.
But let’s run the numbers and check the map:
Arizona: Toss Up, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada: Toss Up, Harris +1, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: Harris +5, +10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Georgia: Trump +1, +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina: Toss Up, Harris +1, +3, Trump +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania: Harris +3, +5, +6, Trump +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan: Harris +1, +3, +5, Tie, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin: Harris +1, +2, +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota: Harris +4, +5, +7, +9
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Overall, Harris looks a lot stronger than last week. Even losing Georgia, clawing back PA from Trump and moving Wisconsin fron toss-up to Harris gives her EXACTLY 270.
On the map:
I think this is the first time since Biden dropped out that any candidate has hit the magic 270 number.