• frezik@midwest.social
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    2 months ago

    China has no incentive to invade Taiwan

    Thank you for explaining you know nothing about geopolitics right at the start.

      • frezik@midwest.social
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        2 months ago
        • China has an old ideological incentive
        • Xi might want an invasion to hide his own failures
        • China wants TSMC ** TSMC might be rigged to explode, but China might be willing to go, anyway, in a “if we can’t have it, nobody can” strategy
        • China doesn’t want an unsinkable aircraft carrier in range of its mainland
        • China wants to extend its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone ** Which itself has implications for how the US can deploy carriers around China

        You can argue that none of the benefits add up to the cost of an invasion–I would tend to agree–but saying China has no incentive is just dumb. In particular, ideological reasons may be weighted much higher by Chinese leaders than any outsider could guess.

        • aodhsishaj@lemmy.world
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          2 months ago

          Thanks for the reply.

          I’m quoted using such black and white language from my original post so I’ll have to leave it there even though I know it smacks of smug rhetoric, but I said it so it’ll stay.

          I do have counter points to each of your points in my original post except for the unsinkable aircraft carrier, however pardon the pun but that ship has sailed. But you know that as you referenced the killswitches TSMC has.

          That last point I think we agree. With the recent purges in the military and a lame duck president with a pending election that’s exactly what I think is happening here. Especially since they’re not really moving any of their “third navy” into formation for defilade and screening so it is still, as it stands, a loud and frightening bluff.