I don’t know a single person voting Nats but my gut feeling is they will get it. And likely not by a huge margin, meaning Nat-Act govt likely.
ITT no discussing why X should or shouldn’t be in, just your predictions.
Also, is it illegal to bet on elections?
You can’t seriously think Act voters are less vocal than TOP. Bearing in mind, Act voters outnumber TOP ten to one, based on current polling.
It’s been my experience they are, yes. Bare in mind I’m not really counting online interactions, as that is pretty skewed.
In person I’ve experienced several rants on the usual rightwing talking points from people who have confirmed they are voting ACT, and a similar number of environmentalist rants from people who clearly are greenies. I’ve never met anyone in-person who has pushed a TOP talking point or claimed they are voting TOP, ditto NZF although I know people who lean one way or the other based on other conversations.
An additional point, the only people I’ve seen around on street corners with banners, or walking the streets drumming up support, are Freedum party loonies, Act, Nat and Labour (in that order). I find this interesting, but not really scientific lol.