• 4 Posts
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Joined 3 months ago
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Cake day: March 20th, 2024

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  • Why didn’t the AIPAC spend $15 million to buy AOCs seat as well if that’s all there is to it?

    I think something you may not be taking into account is that Bowman’s district was redrawn since he first got elected, drastically changing his constituency:

    The congressional district’s boundaries have shifted since Bowman first won office in 2020, losing most of its sections in the Bronx and adding more of Westchester County’s suburbs. Today, 21% of its voting-age population is Black and 42% is non-Hispanic white, according to U.S. Census figures, compared to 30% Black and 34% white in the district as it existed through 2022. Bowman is Black. Latimer is white.

    This change made him particularly susceptible to a primary challenge, regardless of PAC spending.

    This article shows the AIPAC has contributed almost $900 thousand to Wesley Bell’s campaign as of April 30th. This isn’t total spending in the race, just direct campaign contributions. Still less than they contributed to the Latimer’s campaign for sure, but not insignificant. We’re still almost 6 weeks until the Missouri primary election which is when the spending usually ramps up. To do an apples to apples comparison at this point in time would take more time than I care to invest but I’d love to see the results if you want to do it. Regardless of the exact figures, it’s clear the AIPAC is targeting only specific progressive Democratic candidates, and it seems to me the reason they’re doing so is because the candidates are already politically vulnerable.

    Also Latimer beat Bowman by nearly 17% per NBC news.


  • I respect sticking to his principles, but sometimes in politics you have to do something you find distasteful for the greater good.

    We have no idea what would have happened had Bowman kept his head down about Israel, but we do know that speaking out against the invasion of Gaza and calling for a ceasefire didn’t really move the needle on actually achieving a ceasefire. It did make him unpopular with his constituents and made him vulnerable to a primary challenger.

    Now Bowman is probably going to lose his seat in congress and there’s one less progressive voice and vote in congress.

    I don’t know what the full outcome of this will be, but sometimes doing the right thing causes more harm than good in the very morally gray area of politics.


  • Why do you think that is?

    My opinion and all the evidence I’ve seen is that It’s because AOC wasn’t vulnerable.

    Polls from March show Bowman was already in trouble as far back as March. Bowman’s campaign (the Upswing research poll) showed Latimer and Bowman were essentially tied. That’s bad for an incumbant. The AIPAC poll from the Melman group around the same time showed an overwhelming preference for Latimer over Bowman. That’s when the AIPAC started pouring money in to the campaign to exploit that weakness.

    The AIPAC research showed Bowman was vulnerable, similar to why the AIPAC is spending big to replace Cori Bush but they are essentially leaving Ilhan Omar (so far).

    The AIPAC analysts are highly skilled at collecting and analyzing data. This allows them to know how and where to spend their money to get the maximum return on their investment. They aren’t going to waste money trying to defeat a candidate like AOC who is still largely popular with their constituents.