For a brief moment, former EU climate chief Frans Timmermans looked like being the next prime minister of the Netherlands. But with 48 hours to go to polling, this now seems unlikely.
If PvdA-GL comes out on top, there is a chance for them to form a coalition with all the left-wing parties and one centre party. According to survezs most leftist Dutch people are aware of this and consider a tactical vote for PvdA-GL to get a more left leaning government.
I don’t think there’s a big-enough centre party that would go for that, and I don’t think that’s what GL-PvdA is aiming for either. Rather, if they don’t come out on top, what’s likely to happen is that the right and centre-right parties would try (and probably succeed) to form a coalition together. If they do come out on top, GL-PvdA will instead replace one or two of those parties in that coalition, going for something like GL-PvdA/VVD/NSC.
And then, of course, the question is what will happen to them in the elections after that. But I’m sure the PvdA is very aware of what might happen.
NSC might be up for it. A colleague told me, that the PvdA did not take the option of a left-leaning coalition with a center party in the past, so they might not this time around either.
I don’t think there’s a big-enough centre party that would go for that, and I don’t think that’s what GL-PvdA is aiming for either. Rather, if they don’t come out on top, what’s likely to happen is that the right and centre-right parties would try (and probably succeed) to form a coalition together. If they do come out on top, GL-PvdA will instead replace one or two of those parties in that coalition, going for something like GL-PvdA/VVD/NSC.
And then, of course, the question is what will happen to them in the elections after that. But I’m sure the PvdA is very aware of what might happen.
NSC might be up for it. A colleague told me, that the PvdA did not take the option of a left-leaning coalition with a center party in the past, so they might not this time around either.