I mean, the projected winner maps aren’t the US government’s decision, it’s what whatever news your watching has modelled as settled with an acceptable margin of error based on current information. Realistically they could have called most of the states months ago with that same error, some organizations just veil it more
The votes will be counted before electors are appointed. The news networks are just calling it in advance whenever it’s clear which way it will go. It’s their job.
The news media creates reality as the people see it. People make decisions based on their perception of reality that inform their political decisions. Therefore the news media is part of democracy, and it must construct reality democratically. That means waiting until the votes are counted.
Not sure I understand. They don’t call it until after the polls close. How could calling it after the polls close influence people’s political decisions?
News orgs call states based on a combination of polls and vote counts. States that poll significantly in one direction or the other are typically called early in that direction because the outcome is not in doubt
Polls are not Votes.
Polls are not subject to the same scrutiny as Votes.
Even in regions that have a traditional bias towards one party of the other, there can still (theoretically) be significant statistical differences.
For instance, what if the Mormon women also decided to vote along gender lines; they may informally poll Republican in front of their peers, but may vote Democrat in the privacy of the voting booth.
What if a landslide number of people who have never voted before all vote against the status quo. If they had never voted before, they wouldn’t have been included in any polling.
Whether this is a realistic scenario or not is irrelevant to whether it can be called until at least half the possible votes have been counted in favour of one candidate or the other.
No, there’s no need here. I’m sure they have some votes counted, but they have a model and if the votes match the model they can, with pretty good confidence, call it early. There wasn’t a chance here really and when they see the votes start going the predicted direction they know nothing crazy happened to flip it.
Did you think the Mormons were going blue?
They should at least actually count the votes before calling the election. That’s what democracy is.
I mean, the projected winner maps aren’t the US government’s decision, it’s what whatever news your watching has modelled as settled with an acceptable margin of error based on current information. Realistically they could have called most of the states months ago with that same error, some organizations just veil it more
The votes will be counted before electors are appointed. The news networks are just calling it in advance whenever it’s clear which way it will go. It’s their job.
The news media creates reality as the people see it. People make decisions based on their perception of reality that inform their political decisions. Therefore the news media is part of democracy, and it must construct reality democratically. That means waiting until the votes are counted.
Not sure I understand. They don’t call it until after the polls close. How could calling it after the polls close influence people’s political decisions?
News orgs call states based on a combination of polls and vote counts. States that poll significantly in one direction or the other are typically called early in that direction because the outcome is not in doubt
Polls are not Votes. Polls are not subject to the same scrutiny as Votes. Even in regions that have a traditional bias towards one party of the other, there can still (theoretically) be significant statistical differences.
For instance, what if the Mormon women also decided to vote along gender lines; they may informally poll Republican in front of their peers, but may vote Democrat in the privacy of the voting booth.
What if a landslide number of people who have never voted before all vote against the status quo. If they had never voted before, they wouldn’t have been included in any polling.
Whether this is a realistic scenario or not is irrelevant to whether it can be called until at least half the possible votes have been counted in favour of one candidate or the other.
No, there’s no need here. I’m sure they have some votes counted, but they have a model and if the votes match the model they can, with pretty good confidence, call it early. There wasn’t a chance here really and when they see the votes start going the predicted direction they know nothing crazy happened to flip it.