Do you think that Prigozhin’s current march to Moscow (which sounds like it is over already) will start any wave of change in Russia? I am curious about what chain of events we are likely to see based on the new events in the last 24 hours. Will the weakness exposed by Prigozhin tip the scales for other groups actions? Will the different Russian liberation groups use this opportunity to speed up their overall goals? Will the ongoing sabotage missions between different groups cause even more critical infrastructure to collapse. I am curious about what you think?
It’s really hard to tell what’s really going on. The whole ‘freedom march’ or whatever thas was called was called out so quickly and without much public discourse that it’s possible that the whole circus was set up beforehand so that Prigorzin could just get out of the front lines and replace Lukachenko (who seems to have health issues) to keep Belarus at control before they rise and start to demand better future for their country.
On the other hand it’s equally possible that Pringles thought that the only way out from the front lines is either to become fertilizer for for sunflowers or go through Moscow and he got Belarus and his most loyal mens in exchange. impossible to tell, maybe one day we’ll know the whole trutth, but I’m not holding my breath while waiting.
In any case it seems like Ukraine has around 5k fewer enemies to worry about in the immediate future. Personally I think the whole thing went trough too easily, so it’s either that it was planned in advance or the situation at Russia is really messed up and this was the best they could do in the current situation.
Personally I’m not sure which would be better. Either Belarus will be even more under the Russian control or the Russia itself is practically breaking up. Upcoming weeks and months will likely reveal what’s the real outcome, but as a Finn I’m glad that our air force has posted images from their excersises with nato lately.
I hadn’t thought of the replacing-Lukashenko angle before; that makes a lot of sense. His march on Moskva could have been a show of strength to discourage rebellion in Belarus when he takes over
That’s just a one possibility. I’ve been following the situation all day and at the end, to me from my armchair general position, it seems like that the whole thing was way too easy. Just take a nice roadtrip with friends from the frontlines into practically borders of Moscow and get a free pass to do whatever you wish, regardless of FSB and other three letter agencies at Russia.
So, my (very much amateur) take on this is that either it was preplanned or the Russia is in real problems and way over their heads to really do anything else than migitiate the threat with whatever they have available. If the latter is really the case then it could be interesting if Kazachstan and Ubekiztan really hold their support for Putin, Erdogan of course included, or if they take their chance with independce.
Either way the following weeks should be pretty interesting.
It does seem to have played out too smoothly and fast, I don’t know about the Belarus angle nor the footage allegedly showing Wagners camp bombed out, but the actual ‘coup’ feels off
I have been thinking about the same things. I have been seeing multiple reports from Belarus, and the different Russian liberation movements, saying that “now” is the time. Using the chaos to their advantage. Prigozhin didn’t mention Putin directly in most of his newest messaging, I have a feeling that was deliberate. With that level of deliberation, it is hard to believe the whole thing was not planned. They can blame the security failures on the predecessor, and Putin can pretend that he was unaware of how terrible “the last guy” was. P.S. Calling him Pringles made my day.