It has to be pretty high. They can’t go North as they are, they’re going to get gubbed. But what choice do they have really? Players clearly not up for it, will a new coach pull them out a doldrum? This is also the team to host the Lions next year and 3-0 a distinct possibility.
I’d stick with Schmidt but I think he probably needs a better forward coach and a bunch of work within the franchises on the forwards as well. I haven’t watched the two Argentina games, but for the games I have seen they’ve been losing in the forwards as much as the backs. Lolesio nor any other option at 10 can’t do much if the blokes in front aren’t getting parity.
@TagMeInSkipIGotThis@Olap probably best to stick with Schmidt. He isn’t their problem. I think they have a few big names out injured but it’ll be a while before they’re truly on the upswing.
I think this is an argument against Razor too; sure the Crusaders won a bunch of titles back to back to back, but in hindsight, was that as much of an achievement, especially in the 2020-23 seasons. That speaks to the competitiveness of Super Rugby which I think we can look back and even question prior to 2020 as well. Unfortunately due to the weirdness of the conference system and the changes that kept being made its actually a bit tricky to compare things.
2017: two of the African teams did quite well, by which i’m measuring winning 3/5 of their matches. But outside of the Lions and Stormers only its only 4/5 of the NZ teams winning 10+ / 15 matches.
But in 2018 form outside NZ starts to dip and the only teams winning 10+ / 16 games are NZ sides, and we’re starting to see more & more other teams making the playoffs due to the guaranteed spot from the conference system rather than points rank.
2019 is a bit better, but no South African team won more than 8/16 games. The Jaguares did as well as the Crusaders and won the SA conference with as many wins as they did, 11/16.
If we look at the last two years of Razor’s reign in '22 & '23 I think there’s actually cause for concern in the results there too. The Crusaders won in the playoffs and that’s good news for the World Cup in 3 years time, but in neither of those seasons were the Crusaders actually the dominant team. They won 11 & 10 / 14 respectively whereas the teams that topped the table, Chiefs & Blues both won 13/14 - they just failed in the final.
Trouble is, being good at finals footy is a huge plus come tournament time, but they only happen once every 4 years, the rest of the time we expect an 85+% win rate for the All Blacks as a pass, a good season is 90+%, and we really don’t think of a great season as being anything other than a 100%.
Hey, they are the All Blacks for a reason! I was surprised when they get a less than perfect season too. But the rugby world has clearly been levelled with the kicking changes and tweaks to the breakdown, and South Africa (and Rassie in particular) have adapted best and pushed the rules and spirit hardest.
SA in the URC has helped Sco, Ire, and Ita (perhaps not Wales). But I do suspect that super rugby isn’t to blame, we have conferences, and travel too. Our season being longer may have something to do with it, or maybe it’s the coaching and cash that the NH has (not just head coaching). Not sure how that translates to SA though.
And of course, this is all just the professional game. The amateur game is struggling around the world from what I can learn - player numbers being held up by the growth of the women’s game is to be both commended and worried about. When did your local club last field a 3rds? Do they even manage 2nds?
I just had a look at the Hawke’s Bay Club/Community Rugby fixtures list for 2024 and it looks like most of the bigger clubs still have a Seniors, Colts & Div 3 team, plus there’s also the Brad Weber Cup (Under 85kg) which effectively makes 4 tiers.
I don’t really know how that compares with rugby in England/Wales/Scotland as the terminology might not be like for like. Club rugby in NZ is basically community rugby - its in the towns and suburbs and each region will run their own competitions. Next step up is typically the NPC, which is where the best player’s from each province’s club competition are selected into a representative team, and then obviously from there the best players go up into Super Rugby.
The NPC has been getting a bit weird though as the best NPC players that don’t make Super Rugby will be overseas playing professionally somewhere as well (MLR, Japan League 1 etc) so might not actually end up playing much or any of the club competition before making the representative team. Some Super players will play club games as well, even though the seasons overlap a bit - I think Nonu and the Savea boys have all played a Super game on Friday then a Club game the next day.
The community game is definitely struggling here though, even where there’s plenty of players the difficulty is finding coaching, referees, and people to help staff the grounds etc.
@Olap what are the odds of a new Aussie coach after the tournament is done?
It has to be pretty high. They can’t go North as they are, they’re going to get gubbed. But what choice do they have really? Players clearly not up for it, will a new coach pull them out a doldrum? This is also the team to host the Lions next year and 3-0 a distinct possibility.
I’d stick with Schmidt but I think he probably needs a better forward coach and a bunch of work within the franchises on the forwards as well. I haven’t watched the two Argentina games, but for the games I have seen they’ve been losing in the forwards as much as the backs. Lolesio nor any other option at 10 can’t do much if the blokes in front aren’t getting parity.
@TagMeInSkipIGotThis @Olap probably best to stick with Schmidt. He isn’t their problem. I think they have a few big names out injured but it’ll be a while before they’re truly on the upswing.
They can’t tackle, going wide has exposed their lack of drift. It’s s&c for me, and they all look prepped for Super Rugby, at best, not test matches
I think this is an argument against Razor too; sure the Crusaders won a bunch of titles back to back to back, but in hindsight, was that as much of an achievement, especially in the 2020-23 seasons. That speaks to the competitiveness of Super Rugby which I think we can look back and even question prior to 2020 as well. Unfortunately due to the weirdness of the conference system and the changes that kept being made its actually a bit tricky to compare things.
2017: two of the African teams did quite well, by which i’m measuring winning 3/5 of their matches. But outside of the Lions and Stormers only its only 4/5 of the NZ teams winning 10+ / 15 matches.
But in 2018 form outside NZ starts to dip and the only teams winning 10+ / 16 games are NZ sides, and we’re starting to see more & more other teams making the playoffs due to the guaranteed spot from the conference system rather than points rank.
2019 is a bit better, but no South African team won more than 8/16 games. The Jaguares did as well as the Crusaders and won the SA conference with as many wins as they did, 11/16.
If we look at the last two years of Razor’s reign in '22 & '23 I think there’s actually cause for concern in the results there too. The Crusaders won in the playoffs and that’s good news for the World Cup in 3 years time, but in neither of those seasons were the Crusaders actually the dominant team. They won 11 & 10 / 14 respectively whereas the teams that topped the table, Chiefs & Blues both won 13/14 - they just failed in the final.
Trouble is, being good at finals footy is a huge plus come tournament time, but they only happen once every 4 years, the rest of the time we expect an 85+% win rate for the All Blacks as a pass, a good season is 90+%, and we really don’t think of a great season as being anything other than a 100%.
Hey, they are the All Blacks for a reason! I was surprised when they get a less than perfect season too. But the rugby world has clearly been levelled with the kicking changes and tweaks to the breakdown, and South Africa (and Rassie in particular) have adapted best and pushed the rules and spirit hardest.
SA in the URC has helped Sco, Ire, and Ita (perhaps not Wales). But I do suspect that super rugby isn’t to blame, we have conferences, and travel too. Our season being longer may have something to do with it, or maybe it’s the coaching and cash that the NH has (not just head coaching). Not sure how that translates to SA though.
And of course, this is all just the professional game. The amateur game is struggling around the world from what I can learn - player numbers being held up by the growth of the women’s game is to be both commended and worried about. When did your local club last field a 3rds? Do they even manage 2nds?
I just had a look at the Hawke’s Bay Club/Community Rugby fixtures list for 2024 and it looks like most of the bigger clubs still have a Seniors, Colts & Div 3 team, plus there’s also the Brad Weber Cup (Under 85kg) which effectively makes 4 tiers.
I don’t really know how that compares with rugby in England/Wales/Scotland as the terminology might not be like for like. Club rugby in NZ is basically community rugby - its in the towns and suburbs and each region will run their own competitions. Next step up is typically the NPC, which is where the best player’s from each province’s club competition are selected into a representative team, and then obviously from there the best players go up into Super Rugby.
The NPC has been getting a bit weird though as the best NPC players that don’t make Super Rugby will be overseas playing professionally somewhere as well (MLR, Japan League 1 etc) so might not actually end up playing much or any of the club competition before making the representative team. Some Super players will play club games as well, even though the seasons overlap a bit - I think Nonu and the Savea boys have all played a Super game on Friday then a Club game the next day.
The community game is definitely struggling here though, even where there’s plenty of players the difficulty is finding coaching, referees, and people to help staff the grounds etc.