Welcome to this week’s casual kōrero thread!
This post will be pinned in this community so you can always find it, and will stay for about a week until replaced by the next one.
It’s for talking about anything that doesn’t justify a full post. For example:
- Something interesting that happened to you
- Something humourous that happened to you
- Something frustrating that happened to you
- A quick question
- A request for recommendations
- Pictures of your pet
- A picture of a cloud that kind of looks like a hippo
- Anything else, there are no rules (except the rule)
So how’s it going?
Given the lack of rigorous testing and monitoring I suspect actual reported number of cases should be doubled or tripled. The hospitalisation and deaths are more reliable and that’s what we should be monitoring.
In terms of MOH reporting, absolutely. Triple is probably still underestimating. You’re right about hospitalisations and deaths, data is much better when we don’t rely on people self-reporting. Unfortunately I didn’t manage to find the right data (though I didn’t try particularly hard).
The graph I posted about is from a flu study, the numbers should be very reliable, just affected by the small sample size (from my rough calculations based on the graph, about 1,300 participants). From the graph it looks like about 20/80 confirmed cases, so 20/1300. With a very rough 400,000 people in the Wellington region, that’s 6,000 people with COVID in Wellington alone.